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Chinese GDP will grow by 8% in 2021?

Several Chinese economists said that the Chinese GDP should grow by 8% on 2021. This would balance 2020’s low 2% GDP increase. In regular years, China’s growth exceeds 5-6% – so it is a particularly high growth rate.

Chinese GDP in 2021 depends on China’s early reaction to pandemic

It is no wonder that China is the only major country to grow.
Before the pandemic it was growing faster than developed countries and kept the growth steady for more than 40 years. Long term planning is one of the core skills of the Chinese bureaucrats.
This paid off in fighting the emergencies throughout 2020: while GDP fell by 6.8% in the first three months of 2020, it recovered in the third quarter of the same year. Furthermore, China’s relatively modest relying on foreign trade allowed it to keep growing even during COVID-19. That was thanks to internal demand boosts via subsidies and other initiatives.

Liuwen and Liubao managed to hold Chinese economy steady

The Liuwen and the Liubao (six points to stabilize and six points to guarantee) helped stabilizing the economy of China.
China created 9 million jobs in the first 9 months of the year. The liubao were clearly short-term directed operations to ensure getting through the coronavirus crisis during its worst period for China. The liuwen, instead, will be still influencing the direction of China much more for the medium and long term.

Foreign hostility will stop Chinese GDP in 2021?

Many economists who pointed out the potential growth of 8% for China during 2021 also pointed out one risk factor: foreign hostility. Considering President-Elect Biden has not planned to reduce the trade tariffs established by President Trump, it is a very likely factor against Chinese growth.

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Whether the future growth of China will be 8% or not is up for discussion. Yet, considering how 2020 went, not many could debate the possibility of any recession for China during 2021.
After all, China overcame not only the beginning of the pandemic, but also earthquakes, floods and other disasters.

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